Latest from OUTPUTS
Outputs of the project
METHODOLOGY FOR CASCADING EFFECTS IN CRISIS
SnowBall consists in a deep analysis of cascading effects and development of methods to anticipate them; and in a Decision Support System able to display current crisis monitoring and results of simulated decisions integrating cascading effects, thanks to a data collection system, an Events Log Database, Simulators and a Dashboard. SnowBall innovates in its modular approach to crises, its modelling techniques, its agent-supported coupled grid simulations, its generic Events Log Database and tools to follow public behaviour (Emergency Alert, social networks, mobile application).
GUIDELINES FOR BETTER APPREHENDING OF CASCADING EFFECTS
The scope of the theoretical model is to define a methodological framework to address hazard/impact assessments of cascading effect scenarios based on the understanding of dependencies and interactions between different hazards and the influence of exposure and vulnerability of the elements at risk on the base of the cumulative damage due to the sequence of events, both propagation across service networks and critical infrastructures. The proposed methodology aims at defining through probabilistic approaches potential cascading effects time-history, integrating consolidated methods such as Event trees analyses, Bayesian methods and Expert elicitation to address the specific issues that characterise the simulation of cascading effects scenarios.
Full information on the results are available in the deliverables section (D3.4 & D3.5, both available soon).
DELIVERABLES
Consortium is under the process of releasing the following deliverables in their public format. Come back at the end of May to access them all.
| D2.1 Specifications of the whole system report |
| D2.2 Needs analysis of end-users report |
| D2.8 Global integrated solution |
| D2.9 Report on testing and efficiency of the solution and Formal approval |
| D3.1 Report on the crisis scenario analysis and the refinement of simulation scenarios |
| D3.2 Report on the vulnerability models and the elementary crisis brick approach |
| D3.3 Theoretical model for the cascading effects (version |
| D3.4 Theoretical model for the cascading effects (version |
| D3.5 Report on the results of the study on human behaviour in cascading crisis situations (* with modifications of the empirical part which EMAUG would make, as well as with the consent of all partners involved) |
| D4.3 Web portal for manual inputs |
| D4.4 Data layers and thesaurus |
| D4.6 Events log Database (version 2) |
| D4.7 Action planning manager |
| D5.1 Engineering grid models and Deterministic grid interfaces |
| D5.2 Agent behaviour models |
| D5.3 Models for Damages of nodes in networks |
| D6.2 Decision Algorithm (version 2) |
| D6.3 Displays for crisis monitoring, probabilistic approach |
| D6.6 Graphic workflow |
| D6.7 Post-crisis reporting module |
| D7.1 Report on past crisis analysis |
| D7.2 Report on Simulation |
| D8.1 Website |
| D8.2 Report on the Dissemination campaign |
| D8.3 User guide for end-users on how to better take into consideration cascading effects in crisis management |
SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES
Zuccaro, D. De Gregorio, M. F. Leone. Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses
Special issue of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Understanding and mitigating cascading crises in the global interconnected system (Elsevier), 2018.
Zuccaro, D. De Gregorio, M. F. Leone. Analyses of cascading effects induced by volcanic eruptions in Santorini Island.
Special issue of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Understanding and mitigating cascading crises in the global interconnected system (Elsevier), 2018.
DEMONSTRATIONS
The partners have used the SnowBall tools in three different situations: storm in Finland caused flooding in Poland and volcanic eruption in Greece. These simulations allowed two things, to assess the efficiency of the tool in simulating cascading effects, and the accuracy of the simulation outcomes and to assess the ability of authorities and first responders to minimize cascading effects, and the impact of a crisis. This report on Simulations is divided in two parts, first part A describes outcome of the pilot cases in Finland, Poland and Greece. The second part B describes in detail the reference scenario in Greece (Santorini), showing the theoretical model for pilot application of SnowBall.
